The Final Polls Show a Blue Surge. Can We Trust Them?

Covered by The New York Times, Aol and 10 more since

  • Democratic Party (United States)
  • Republican Party (United States)
  • Donald Trump
  • Michigan
  • United States
  • Texas
  • Kansas
  • Alaska
Blank survey forms, a landline phone and clipboard on a lamplit desk, with a capitol dome visible through a window at blue twilight.

What happened

On the eve of the Nov. 3 midterms, final polls, forecasts and betting markets pointed to big Democratic gains. New York Times/Siena polls showed Democrats leading all seven Senate battlegrounds. Pollsters also warned that Democrats were answering surveys at higher rates than Republicans, a gap that could mean the polls overstate Democratic support.

Summary

Heading into Tuesday's midterms, nearly every measure pointed the same way. Final New York Times/Siena polls showed Democrats ahead in all seven Senate battlegrounds: by 11 points in Michigan, 7 in Texas, 6 in Maine, 5 each in Ohio and Kansas, 2 in Alaska and 1 in Iowa. Axios notes that the last five leads fall within the margin of error. The final NBC News poll gave Democrats a 52% to 45% edge on the generic ballot, which asks which party voters want in Congress. Forecaster Nate Silver put Democrats' chances at 95% for the House and 80% for the Senate. [2] [9] [10]

The catch is who picks up the phone. Times polling chief Nate Cohn warned that white Democrats were about 30% more likely than white Republicans to take the final surveys. That gap is slightly wider than in 2020, when polls overstated Democratic support. In Kansas, the Washington Post found registered Democrats were more than twice as likely to finish its survey, 32% versus 12%. Pollsters sometimes call this differential nonresponse. They adjust, or weight, their results to match a state's makeup, but CNN notes that weighting may not fully fix the gap. Times/Siena also found that voters who decided in the last month favored Republicans by 9 points. [6] [7] [9] [10]

Republicans have seized on those doubts. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson accused pollsters of manufacturing the look of a Democratic wave to hold down GOP turnout, and a Fox Business commentary argued that Republicans will keep the Senate. Even so, in his election-eve speech Trump acknowledged that historically the president's party "doesn't win the midterms." Final results may take a while. In Alaska, absentee ballots can be counted through Nov. 18, with certification targeted for Nov. 25. A close race there could leave Senate control unsettled into December. [2] [4] [8] [9]

Summary written by Vox Populi News from the 12 sources below. See all sources

Key questions

Why might the 2026 midterm polls be wrong?

Democrats have been far more willing than Republicans to answer surveys this year, and weighting may not fully correct for that. Some Republicans who skip polls could still turn out to vote. [7] [9]

Who is favored to win the House and Senate in 2026?

Strategists in both parties say Democrats are likely to win the House, and Nate Silver's model gives them a 95% chance there and an 80% chance in the Senate. Some analysts still describe the Senate as more uncertain. [1] [9]

When will we know which party controls the Senate?

If the outcome depends on a close Alaska race, it could take weeks. Counting there can continue through Nov. 18, certification is targeted for Nov. 25, and a recount or court fight could push the answer into December. [2] [4]

Sources 12

  1. 1The New York Times

    What to Know About the Midterm Elections

    Strategists in both parties say it is likely that Democrats will wrest back control of the House, but the battle for the Senate is more complicated.

    Read on The New York Times (opens in a new tab)
  2. 2Aol

    How the Michigan and Alaska dramas shape the fight for the Senate: From the Politics Desk

    Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

    Politics Desk

    Read on Aol (opens in a new tab)
  3. 3CNBC

    Prediction market traders now see nearly 75% chance of Democrats winning the Senate

    * Traders on Kalshi see a 74% chance of Democrats winning the Senate. * The higher odds come after a New York Times and Siena University poll found Democrats are leading in seven battleground states.

    Ananya Chetia

    Read on CNBC (opens in a new tab)
  4. 4NBC News

    How the Michigan and Alaska dramas shape the fight for the Senate: From the Politics Desk

    Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

    Politics Desk

    Read on NBC News (opens in a new tab)
  5. 5The Wall Street Journal

    What the Midterms Campaign Tells Us About Where Our Politics Are Headed

    Republicans, in turn, have watched as President Trump elevated Ken Paxton, the indicted and impeached attorney general in Texas, for a Senate seat over a politically safer option, only to mock Paxton…

    Aaron Zitner

    Read on The Wall Street Journal (opens in a new tab)
  6. 6Breitbart

    Nolte: NY Times, Washington Post Fret over Republicans Ignoring Pollsters

    New York Times polling gives all seven U.S. Senate swing states to Democrats, including Kansas and Iowa. The Washington Post released a poll last week showing Democrats winning a U.S.

    John Nolte

    Read on Breitbart (opens in a new tab)
  7. 7CNN International

    What polls do and don't tell us about the 2026 midterms

    Can the polls be trusted? It depends on what you're trusting them to do. Even the most carefully conducted polls are imprecise snapshots of public opinion, not precision instruments -- and when…

    Ariel Edwards-Levy

    Read on CNN International (opens in a new tab)
  8. 8Fox Business

    LARRY KUDLOW: My Prediction -- Voters, Not Polls Will Decide This Election

    Even the Times acknowledges that Republicans are winning over late deciders by 9 percentage points in seven battleground states. Here we are. One day left.

    Larry Kudlow

    Read on Fox Business (opens in a new tab)
  9. 9Axios

    Final polls, models and markets see a "blue tsunami"

    Why it matters: Expectations for the midterms have soared so high that some Democrats fear disappointment is inevitable, particularly if the party falls short of winning the Senate -- a prize that…

    Zachary Basu

    Read on Axios (opens in a new tab)
  10. 10NJ.com

    New polls show clear midterm winner -- but a big catch

    A string of final polls ahead of Tuesday are giving Democrats all the momentum. An NBC News poll, released Sunday, found that registered voters want control of Congress to be flipped away from the…

    Rachel Cohen

    Read on NJ.com (opens in a new tab)
  11. 11The Hollywood Reporter

    Can Democrats Really Flip the Senate? Hollywood Holds Its Breath

    What the odds really look like as a largely liberal industry frets in commissaries, Zooms and board rooms.

    Steven Zeitchik

    Read on The Hollywood Reporter (opens in a new tab)
  12. 12The Seattle Times

    5 questions that will determine how the midterms shake out

    Here are the five questions that probably will determine how Tuesday's midterm elections turn out. 1. What do disaffected voters do?

    Amber Phillips

    Read on The Seattle Times (opens in a new tab)